* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 75 71 66 61 57 56 56 54 51 48 41 38 35 31 30 V (KT) LAND 85 80 75 71 66 61 57 56 56 54 51 48 41 38 35 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 76 71 67 60 56 53 51 49 47 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 16 18 23 25 23 16 12 9 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 4 5 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 222 218 213 208 218 219 238 241 258 252 194 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.2 23.6 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 132 127 132 132 133 128 123 116 105 99 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 36 36 37 36 34 35 37 43 48 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 16 15 15 16 14 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 24 18 13 14 3 -11 -33 -51 -48 -18 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 17 10 26 26 24 17 -11 18 9 22 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 7 6 3 7 8 5 6 9 11 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 280 223 204 215 275 507 759 1014 1245 1459 1657 1866 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.7 23.3 24.7 26.4 28.1 30.0 31.9 33.9 36.0 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.3 155.6 156.8 159.3 161.6 163.5 165.0 166.0 166.4 166.1 165.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 12 12 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 4 1 16 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -29. -33. -35. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -29. -29. -31. -34. -37. -44. -47. -50. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.9 151.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 773.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##