* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 51 54 51 47 46 43 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 49 49 48 50 48 44 43 39 35 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 47 46 45 45 42 39 38 41 44 43 41 40 40 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 42 43 48 55 42 23 23 15 6 13 11 11 11 12 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 3 1 -6 0 2 -6 -4 -6 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 244 244 236 234 231 218 236 238 233 249 353 30 360 9 14 51 296 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.1 23.6 21.5 20.2 21.7 24.4 25.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 133 135 140 128 118 115 110 103 92 82 77 83 98 104 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 111 111 112 100 92 90 88 84 77 71 68 72 81 84 92 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 4 6 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 48 49 45 48 47 44 45 44 46 52 56 58 56 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 27 28 27 34 35 33 33 30 29 26 26 25 24 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 2 -5 -18 10 9 3 -3 -12 -28 -44 -25 4 -15 -14 16 200 MB DIV 50 53 83 61 48 77 5 31 25 -21 -19 -46 -9 -19 2 21 10 700-850 TADV 22 12 -4 -2 0 3 -3 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 4 14 -5 LAND (KM) -38 -16 114 177 206 201 184 172 182 149 138 119 130 230 292 296 333 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.8 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.5 38.8 38.9 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.6 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.0 74.6 73.8 72.9 72.4 72.4 72.5 72.2 71.5 70.7 69.9 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 9 7 3 1 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 5 7 13 13 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. -20. -21. -21. -20. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 8. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -20. -26. -32. -36. -39. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.0 77.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 44 49 49 48 50 48 44 43 39 35 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 54 54 53 55 53 49 48 44 40 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 47 45 41 40 36 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 41 39 35 34 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT