* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 94 90 85 76 68 64 61 60 59 57 54 52 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 100 99 94 90 85 76 68 64 61 60 59 57 54 52 51 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 94 88 83 74 68 63 59 57 55 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 12 17 19 21 22 16 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 7 7 4 4 4 3 2 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 188 205 193 194 203 202 219 210 248 250 270 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 129 130 129 132 134 135 134 135 131 125 115 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 37 39 41 40 39 35 38 38 43 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 19 20 19 17 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 40 40 43 31 28 9 -7 -28 -55 -64 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 17 26 25 28 11 26 31 9 8 -8 20 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 11 8 9 8 7 5 9 9 12 6 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 712 575 438 314 163 132 226 467 728 1004 1285 1566 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.6 22.8 24.2 25.7 27.4 29.5 31.8 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.7 148.0 149.3 150.7 152.0 154.7 157.5 160.1 162.3 164.2 165.7 167.0 168.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 6 5 4 15 8 26 6 6 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -40. -43. -44. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -10. -15. -24. -32. -36. -39. -40. -41. -43. -46. -48. -49. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.9 146.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 891.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 54 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##