* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 75 77 78 75 72 73 64 55 47 41 32 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 60 46 39 33 33 30 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 48 39 33 30 35 35 32 29 29 30 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 15 19 36 46 50 42 20 21 10 2 22 36 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -4 0 0 -3 2 1 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 0 -12 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 255 250 254 235 225 236 227 219 205 216 205 208 92 24 41 43 39 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.5 29.9 29.2 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.3 24.9 23.8 23.2 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 169 173 173 170 157 135 135 139 136 125 113 101 92 89 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 158 162 150 136 114 110 109 106 98 90 82 76 74 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 5 7 4 4 1 1 1 4 3 5 3 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 64 58 47 47 52 51 52 52 49 42 40 39 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 29 29 28 28 30 34 30 26 22 19 15 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 35 37 47 4 3 -2 15 19 21 1 -3 -12 -26 -31 -4 200 MB DIV 70 81 66 89 98 50 59 53 46 38 17 -2 -7 -28 -50 -18 -20 700-850 TADV 20 16 22 22 25 32 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 1 8 4 11 LAND (KM) 190 88 -8 -93 -19 -24 14 183 235 259 251 228 216 199 188 178 190 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.1 32.1 34.1 35.9 37.2 38.1 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.4 84.5 83.7 82.5 81.3 78.3 75.6 73.6 72.3 71.7 71.2 70.7 70.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 15 13 8 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 25 46 6 22 26 8 6 11 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -19. -20. -20. -18. -19. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 9. 3. -3. -9. -15. -19. -24. -26. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 17. 18. 15. 12. 13. 4. -5. -13. -19. -28. -39. -46. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.0 85.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.55 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 40.0% 26.6% 15.6% 7.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.0% 28.6% 17.7% 8.9% 2.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.9% 1.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.7% 23.4% 15.0% 8.9% 3.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 60 46 39 33 33 30 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 54 40 33 27 27 24 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 42 35 29 29 26 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 43 37 37 34 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT