* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 09/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 60 54 49 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 60 54 49 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 60 54 49 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 25 22 23 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 9 13 8 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 260 288 294 291 325 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.4 24.5 23.9 23.3 22.7 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 103 104 99 95 91 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 91 90 86 83 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 41 43 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 23 20 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -70 -79 -81 -82 -96 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -4 3 -32 -38 -38 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 13 23 18 0 17 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1502 1615 1740 1847 1855 1564 1267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.5 38.9 39.3 39.7 40.6 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.1 36.9 34.6 32.8 30.9 27.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 18 16 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 26 CX,CY: 24/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -31. -31. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -35. -52. -62. -69. -74. -78. -81. -84. -87. -89. -89. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 38.0 39.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 629.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 09/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 60 54 49 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 58 53 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 55 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT