* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 69 76 83 84 82 79 63 56 49 45 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 65 69 56 37 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 66 71 61 38 31 28 30 26 24 25 28 32 37 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 10 13 16 27 39 49 38 29 22 18 8 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 1 0 -2 2 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 301 303 284 258 236 253 238 241 230 214 247 249 240 267 240 359 25 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 31.1 30.3 29.0 28.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 167 170 168 173 173 153 146 119 120 122 121 125 127 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 148 150 149 173 156 131 121 97 97 98 98 100 99 96 97 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 5 6 2 4 0 1 1 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 64 66 64 56 47 49 53 53 53 46 46 42 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 22 23 25 28 27 28 30 22 20 17 15 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 44 28 32 45 53 40 46 9 1 12 8 17 19 5 -14 -13 -34 200 MB DIV 30 24 47 56 78 71 90 58 54 43 47 7 13 9 -23 -24 -41 700-850 TADV 7 15 16 14 12 20 21 41 12 -6 3 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 441 398 327 216 112 -77 -29 -99 -42 51 119 196 258 342 374 378 381 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.8 28.7 30.6 32.7 34.9 36.6 37.9 38.6 38.9 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.7 86.3 85.7 85.2 83.5 81.1 78.5 76.4 74.8 73.5 72.2 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 14 11 8 6 5 6 5 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 42 43 36 6 23 7 14 1 1 2 2 5 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 9. 11. 14. 2. -2. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 33. 34. 32. 29. 13. 6. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.5 87.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.3% 12.4% 8.9% 5.4% 10.3% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 25.0% 16.8% 12.4% 3.2% 10.3% 6.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 15.8% 9.9% 7.2% 2.9% 6.9% 6.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 60 65 69 56 37 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 54 59 63 50 31 24 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 42 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT