* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 90 86 83 74 60 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 90 86 83 74 60 39 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 86 82 76 67 56 46 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 15 14 19 18 32 33 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 6 5 10 11 0 3 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 256 249 242 241 298 304 333 349 30 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 27.2 25.9 24.8 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.9 21.9 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 129 116 107 104 97 94 93 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 114 103 95 92 85 82 81 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 34 37 40 41 42 42 45 45 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 28 28 27 22 15 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -31 -53 -60 -73 -85 -85 -102 -117 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 31 25 14 12 -17 -47 -39 -79 -28 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 17 24 25 16 19 0 12 25 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1428 1403 1401 1448 1517 1752 1838 1507 1180 878 612 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.3 36.1 36.8 37.5 38.5 39.2 39.8 40.9 42.3 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 45.9 44.0 41.8 39.5 34.8 30.5 26.7 23.1 19.8 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 18 16 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -20. -30. -40. -49. -55. -59. -63. -66. -68. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -9. -7. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -8. -18. -27. -37. -39. -40. -40. -38. -37. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -12. -21. -35. -56. -74. -91. -94. -96. -97. -97. -96. -94. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 34.5 47.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 895.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 9( 34) 5( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 92 90 86 83 74 60 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 88 85 76 62 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 84 75 61 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 73 59 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 53 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 92 83 77 74 68 54 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 92 90 81 75 71 57 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS