* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 121 118 112 101 89 80 71 67 61 60 59 61 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 120 122 121 118 112 101 89 80 71 67 61 60 59 61 62 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 120 120 117 109 102 93 84 75 67 61 59 57 58 62 67 72 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 0 2 2 5 4 6 6 7 6 7 10 14 17 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 -1 3 5 5 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 122 134 19 231 161 182 167 174 159 209 209 230 245 265 247 248 252 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.6 27.0 26.9 27.5 26.8 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 135 131 133 139 128 130 131 134 130 134 133 139 132 131 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 40 42 40 39 37 38 39 41 42 43 43 44 46 45 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 26 25 24 24 22 22 19 19 18 18 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 59 56 62 61 59 45 50 37 42 49 46 49 32 16 -2 200 MB DIV 12 10 4 38 41 12 11 9 14 1 -2 17 22 -1 0 9 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 10 5 6 0 7 6 7 4 6 4 LAND (KM) 1884 1768 1652 1541 1429 1182 935 679 417 214 128 139 204 399 622 837 1059 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.1 139.2 140.3 141.3 143.6 145.9 148.3 150.9 153.6 156.0 158.3 160.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 7 3 5 14 2 7 5 8 7 19 6 12 6 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -36. -44. -50. -56. -59. -60. -60. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -12. -10. -11. -9. -8. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -8. -19. -31. -40. -49. -53. -59. -60. -61. -59. -58. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.7 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1082.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 1.7% 5.1% 3.7% 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 70 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##