* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 121 118 113 101 92 84 73 70 64 61 61 62 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 120 122 121 118 113 101 92 84 73 70 64 61 61 62 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 118 113 106 94 86 76 69 64 60 59 59 60 62 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 5 3 3 2 7 7 9 10 13 19 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -1 0 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 4 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 131 150 148 155 124 193 173 159 203 226 255 252 274 266 268 260 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.9 27.3 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 141 134 130 133 137 126 129 131 129 133 131 132 132 135 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 43 43 38 38 39 42 45 45 47 47 51 51 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 25 26 25 24 23 20 21 19 18 17 16 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 54 62 56 54 53 43 59 63 49 50 49 41 33 29 12 200 MB DIV 2 6 9 19 44 26 5 -7 7 2 4 16 29 30 28 10 23 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 2 10 4 9 5 6 8 17 16 14 10 LAND (KM) 1987 1872 1757 1640 1523 1288 1041 795 547 333 200 158 165 303 530 788 1045 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 140.4 142.6 144.9 147.2 149.6 152.0 154.5 157.0 159.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 14 6 3 8 8 1 4 8 3 22 6 4 3 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -26. -35. -44. -50. -56. -59. -60. -61. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -6. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -7. -18. -28. -36. -47. -50. -56. -59. -59. -58. -58. -59. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.8 136.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1000.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 92 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##