* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 94 91 90 85 79 78 75 68 65 62 60 60 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 105 98 94 91 90 85 79 78 75 68 65 62 60 60 58 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 93 90 89 84 79 75 69 63 58 55 53 52 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 7 6 9 4 5 4 7 10 13 20 24 27 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 4 4 2 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 98 121 114 157 164 129 180 180 188 182 208 213 231 245 259 266 266 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.5 27.0 27.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.3 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 143 144 140 129 134 134 127 130 132 128 135 132 134 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 40 40 40 38 39 43 45 46 48 51 49 46 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 23 24 22 24 23 20 20 19 18 18 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 52 61 58 58 60 52 53 53 36 51 50 63 46 22 10 -13 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -3 -4 0 32 17 2 0 12 6 5 41 33 29 43 5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 1 4 7 4 10 6 2 1 3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2205 2087 1960 1839 1718 1477 1242 1007 753 507 295 176 171 248 473 744 1014 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 135.0 136.2 137.4 138.5 140.8 143.0 145.2 147.6 150.0 152.5 155.1 157.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 16 16 13 3 9 6 2 4 7 2 24 4 4 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. -36. -40. -43. -44. -45. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. 0. -1. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -15. -20. -26. -27. -30. -37. -40. -43. -45. -45. -47. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.1 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 948.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##