* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 84 84 82 81 73 60 44 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 84 84 82 81 73 60 44 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 84 84 83 82 78 66 54 44 36 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 19 20 19 21 18 21 22 21 28 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 0 2 6 3 9 10 6 1 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 290 294 283 268 229 217 264 302 312 344 344 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 25.5 24.2 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.5 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 139 138 134 128 112 102 95 93 91 90 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 118 118 117 112 100 89 83 81 79 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 35 37 37 36 41 40 44 43 47 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 26 27 29 30 27 23 17 11 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -47 -41 -27 0 -23 -49 -63 -76 -74 -99 -92 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 26 18 17 40 42 23 -10 -34 -51 -44 -21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 1 1 14 23 8 6 12 1 10 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1616 1584 1540 1482 1434 1371 1437 1628 1852 1772 1524 1281 1056 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.5 32.9 33.6 34.2 35.8 37.4 38.7 39.4 39.5 40.3 41.7 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.4 52.5 51.5 50.2 48.9 45.4 41.0 36.4 32.6 29.8 27.1 24.6 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 15 18 19 17 13 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -39. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -5. -15. -23. -31. -38. -36. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -12. -25. -41. -55. -67. -77. -76. -75. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.0 53.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 805.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 3.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 9( 25) 8( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 84 84 84 82 81 73 60 44 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 83 83 81 80 72 59 43 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 81 79 78 70 57 41 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 73 72 64 51 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 64 63 55 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 66 65 57 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 84 75 69 65 64 56 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS