* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 101 97 95 90 83 78 73 67 62 59 58 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 110 105 101 97 95 90 83 78 73 67 62 59 58 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 101 98 96 92 84 78 72 64 59 54 51 50 50 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 10 9 6 8 4 2 4 7 8 8 10 10 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -5 -2 -2 0 4 7 6 3 2 3 3 3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 113 97 82 100 134 131 173 192 159 167 151 179 202 227 218 237 238 SST (C) 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 26.9 26.7 27.3 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 139 142 144 133 131 137 126 130 130 130 129 133 131 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 43 42 41 40 39 40 45 48 48 50 52 52 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 24 26 26 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 16 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 60 62 61 55 46 39 39 27 53 54 61 55 38 49 40 200 MB DIV 4 6 9 3 0 -9 17 20 22 9 22 3 18 23 21 16 26 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 3 5 2 8 5 3 4 9 8 9 5 LAND (KM) 2093 2196 2085 1964 1843 1601 1369 1134 879 628 390 237 173 178 292 497 734 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.8 135.0 136.2 137.3 139.6 141.8 144.0 146.4 148.8 151.3 153.7 156.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 10 14 16 6 5 11 0 4 8 5 10 9 3 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. -45. -48. -49. -50. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -20. -27. -32. -37. -43. -48. -51. -52. -50. -48. -46. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 966.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 8 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##