* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 40 46 56 60 69 70 70 67 61 56 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 40 46 56 45 54 55 55 52 46 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 46 39 44 48 47 43 38 35 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 7 10 14 6 13 15 21 27 40 49 47 44 31 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 3 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 289 310 270 248 276 274 272 253 245 226 237 240 244 241 251 254 270 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 30.0 30.5 29.0 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.7 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 167 170 172 153 159 150 141 133 143 142 139 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 153 149 149 146 150 160 137 142 132 120 110 116 114 111 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.4 -54.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 65 63 66 62 64 59 48 38 37 44 50 54 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 13 12 15 14 19 21 22 22 22 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 78 82 78 76 73 52 -7 28 -1 18 -17 -1 -22 -29 -31 -45 -32 200 MB DIV 3 28 50 35 28 31 35 42 22 38 35 30 31 29 9 23 -29 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 2 1 3 10 -11 8 -6 10 16 10 11 12 11 LAND (KM) 252 278 306 349 391 386 235 47 35 188 238 431 638 600 573 539 451 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.1 26.2 27.6 29.1 30.5 32.0 33.5 34.8 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.8 87.3 87.5 87.6 86.9 85.5 83.6 81.1 77.8 74.4 71.1 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 8 10 12 15 16 15 13 10 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 46 45 43 39 43 48 24 53 35 21 29 56 55 40 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -4. -11. -18. -25. -30. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. 1. -1. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 26. 30. 39. 40. 40. 37. 31. 26. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 86.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 11.0% 16.5% Logistic: 1.8% 9.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 4.0% 11.5% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.8% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 4.1% 7.5% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 40 46 56 45 54 55 55 52 46 42 40 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 38 44 54 43 52 53 53 50 44 40 38 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 34 40 50 39 48 49 49 46 40 36 34 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 27 33 43 32 41 42 42 39 33 29 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT