* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 114 109 105 97 90 84 78 74 68 66 63 63 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 120 118 114 109 105 97 90 84 78 74 68 66 63 63 63 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 120 117 113 109 105 100 91 83 76 69 65 62 60 61 62 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 8 8 8 8 2 3 0 2 4 6 13 15 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -7 -4 -3 -2 -2 2 1 4 1 -1 -4 -2 -5 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 83 99 95 92 107 120 122 198 236 186 153 216 292 279 283 279 274 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.1 26.9 26.8 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.2 27.0 26.7 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 138 139 141 137 125 133 132 125 130 131 127 135 131 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 43 44 43 42 38 38 40 43 44 45 44 43 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 24 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 46 56 51 66 65 57 48 45 41 40 50 55 50 65 56 48 51 200 MB DIV 4 0 -2 -3 6 24 17 24 24 9 9 8 14 0 22 22 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 5 3 5 5 2 2 4 5 8 9 LAND (KM) 1977 2081 2187 2108 1982 1740 1498 1254 1008 753 504 283 163 174 221 376 571 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.4 133.6 134.8 136.0 138.3 140.6 142.9 145.2 147.6 150.0 152.5 155.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 9 11 16 11 0 9 4 0 4 7 2 23 5 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -27. -36. -44. -51. -56. -59. -61. -62. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -3. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -23. -30. -36. -42. -46. -52. -54. -57. -57. -57. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.1 131.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1002.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##