* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 43 40 39 37 36 35 32 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 43 40 39 37 36 35 32 29 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 10 12 17 23 34 40 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 247 257 267 280 279 275 262 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.3 28.8 26.0 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 149 149 148 157 151 116 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 119 118 119 130 129 101 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 6 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 51 55 61 66 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -56 -36 -26 -42 -50 -9 31 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -14 -11 -17 -8 -1 12 64 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 1 5 4 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 255 214 174 156 141 248 402 386 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.7 35.0 36.1 37.7 39.6 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.3 74.6 74.5 74.4 73.0 70.1 66.3 62.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 11 16 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 42 44 44 40 37 32 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -32. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 12. 13. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.7 74.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.9% 8.9% 6.8% 3.4% 7.2% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 13.7% 11.8% 4.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.9% 6.9% 3.6% 1.4% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 43 40 39 37 36 35 32 29 29 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 37 40 41 38 37 35 34 33 30 27 27 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 35 36 33 32 30 29 28 25 22 22 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 29 26 25 23 22 21 18 15 15 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT