* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 96 96 93 90 88 84 72 59 47 35 28 24 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 96 96 93 90 88 84 72 59 47 35 28 24 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 93 93 93 93 92 89 84 76 62 52 43 35 31 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 11 11 11 16 16 18 19 19 20 27 25 19 31 56 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 1 2 2 7 5 12 12 7 -4 -5 1 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 8 350 312 306 279 283 245 246 256 338 12 14 58 112 180 207 210 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.2 25.0 24.5 24.2 23.4 22.8 21.9 21.2 19.0 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 148 148 140 134 128 107 103 100 94 91 87 85 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 122 124 125 120 116 111 93 89 85 81 79 76 75 71 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -53.0 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 38 38 36 38 39 38 35 29 25 27 33 32 31 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 27 29 29 30 32 33 28 23 18 12 9 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -51 -54 -49 -45 -12 -1 -8 -31 -49 -84 -114 -105 -91 -83 -92 -110 200 MB DIV 0 9 -1 4 48 4 56 43 -3 -85 -64 -36 9 12 11 19 36 700-850 TADV 12 11 8 8 12 4 21 33 12 10 3 14 -2 20 -52 -50 -28 LAND (KM) 1642 1627 1609 1607 1600 1515 1430 1403 1483 1647 1808 1947 1745 1511 1281 1108 815 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.3 33.2 34.5 35.9 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.8 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.0 54.5 53.6 52.8 50.6 47.7 44.4 40.8 37.2 34.2 31.8 29.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 9 12 14 15 15 13 11 10 11 12 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 23 24 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -10. -17. -25. -32. -38. -44. -49. -55. -59. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. -1. -9. -18. -26. -30. -30. -33. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -23. -36. -48. -60. -67. -71. -79. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 31.1 55.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 972.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 5.0% 3.6% 2.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 19( 44) 14( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 95 96 96 93 90 88 84 72 59 47 35 28 24 16 DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 94 95 95 92 89 87 83 71 58 46 34 27 23 15 DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 89 86 84 80 68 55 43 31 24 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 82 79 77 73 61 48 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 73 70 68 64 52 39 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 74 71 69 65 53 40 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 95 86 80 76 73 71 67 55 42 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS