* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 106 103 99 92 85 80 75 76 71 70 67 67 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 100 105 106 103 99 92 85 80 75 76 71 70 67 67 65 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 100 106 107 104 100 94 89 85 81 79 75 72 68 63 61 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 10 14 13 9 9 10 10 4 3 6 7 12 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 -6 -4 0 3 4 3 4 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 100 88 87 94 103 93 117 107 142 137 171 217 191 240 226 241 249 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.8 27.4 27.5 26.5 26.6 27.3 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.9 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 139 133 133 139 139 129 130 138 129 130 132 130 134 132 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 41 41 40 39 39 40 42 42 41 42 46 49 52 55 55 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 21 24 22 23 24 25 22 23 21 20 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 51 55 64 60 72 68 62 52 39 42 69 64 55 46 41 200 MB DIV 6 0 9 10 -4 -20 6 -4 -8 8 21 12 26 13 36 30 25 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 0 2 4 1 9 5 8 3 6 0 LAND (KM) 1657 1759 1866 1972 2081 2098 1846 1616 1374 1120 874 617 344 170 112 97 258 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.5 129.8 131.1 132.4 134.9 137.3 139.5 141.8 144.2 146.5 148.9 151.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 14 14 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 10 4 3 11 15 3 4 9 2 4 9 4 22 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -31. -34. -37. -38. -39. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 3. -1. -8. -15. -20. -25. -24. -29. -30. -33. -33. -35. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.9 127.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 863.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 1.8% 3.6% 1.4% 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.1% 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##