* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 97 98 96 95 91 90 90 85 74 68 56 45 34 29 22 V (KT) LAND 100 99 97 98 96 95 91 90 90 85 74 68 56 45 34 29 22 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 97 95 95 94 93 90 83 74 64 57 49 41 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 11 14 15 17 17 19 14 13 10 22 18 11 31 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 1 3 0 0 3 6 6 10 11 14 3 0 0 7 9 SHEAR DIR 354 350 341 340 318 288 271 238 243 248 322 351 13 22 68 197 218 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.0 27.4 27.3 25.0 24.6 24.7 24.0 23.3 22.4 20.8 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 148 147 149 138 130 129 107 103 103 97 93 89 83 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 120 122 122 126 118 112 111 92 88 87 82 80 78 74 70 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 37 40 39 38 39 39 38 35 38 39 39 37 39 41 45 38 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 28 28 30 30 32 34 34 29 27 23 17 12 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -42 -49 -54 -46 -36 -6 -2 -14 -34 -50 -67 -88 -104 -12 18 33 200 MB DIV -17 -11 2 0 -11 31 19 54 23 -4 -76 -61 -42 -5 23 25 14 700-850 TADV 4 6 11 7 6 12 -2 16 34 24 21 11 18 14 40 -53 -108 LAND (KM) 1690 1676 1658 1639 1622 1579 1479 1410 1416 1517 1664 1836 1949 1885 1711 1512 1370 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.5 33.6 34.8 35.9 36.8 37.4 37.6 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 55.1 55.0 54.6 54.1 52.4 50.0 47.3 44.1 40.5 37.3 34.5 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 7 10 12 13 15 14 12 10 7 8 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 30 27 24 22 10 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -27. -35. -41. -47. -52. -58. -62. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. -1. -4. -11. -18. -25. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -10. -15. -26. -32. -43. -55. -66. -71. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.7 55.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1018.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 1.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 19( 49) 17( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 97 98 96 95 91 90 90 85 74 68 56 45 34 29 22 18HR AGO 100 99 97 98 96 95 91 90 90 85 74 68 56 45 34 29 22 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 95 94 90 89 89 84 73 67 55 44 33 28 21 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 87 83 82 82 77 66 60 48 37 26 21 DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 76 75 75 70 59 53 41 30 19 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 81 77 76 76 71 60 54 42 31 20 15 DIS IN 12HR 100 99 97 88 82 78 74 73 73 68 57 51 39 28 17 DIS DIS