* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 51 58 66 70 77 76 78 79 79 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 51 58 66 70 77 54 56 57 56 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 53 60 69 77 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 12 8 9 11 9 10 11 12 16 27 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 2 -3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 314 322 295 263 289 248 287 242 265 228 242 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.7 28.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 165 161 170 169 169 167 170 171 171 141 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 148 143 150 148 147 144 148 153 161 123 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 70 68 66 64 65 64 64 63 61 52 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 19 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 58 63 70 73 66 38 27 -20 21 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 23 32 40 23 24 28 15 35 0 46 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 4 1 12 8 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 75 116 167 228 334 396 399 316 192 9 52 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.5 25.1 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.2 84.1 84.9 85.7 86.8 87.2 87.0 86.3 84.8 83.0 80.8 78.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 61 81 49 36 42 45 41 48 44 52 16 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 5. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 21. 28. 36. 40. 47. 46. 48. 49. 49. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.4 82.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.0% 11.7% 7.9% 4.6% 9.2% 13.1% 26.5% Logistic: 13.0% 65.7% 48.4% 24.1% 15.7% 36.6% 56.9% 77.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 4.1% Consensus: 6.7% 28.9% 20.2% 10.7% 6.8% 15.3% 23.7% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 40 44 51 58 66 70 77 54 56 57 56 57 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 47 54 62 66 73 50 52 53 52 53 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 42 49 57 61 68 45 47 48 47 48 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 40 48 52 59 36 38 39 38 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT