* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 34 39 43 46 49 52 54 56 57 58 59 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 34 39 43 46 49 52 54 56 57 58 59 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 14 12 9 16 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 149 163 183 219 261 259 255 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 146 147 146 152 154 151 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 121 120 119 122 125 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 5 7 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 47 51 51 49 49 54 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -56 -55 -42 -38 -27 -26 -40 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 12 24 17 7 -2 -6 -6 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 540 456 373 305 238 146 117 225 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.1 33.4 34.1 35.0 36.3 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.5 73.3 73.9 74.5 75.1 74.7 73.3 71.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 24 27 31 36 46 39 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 71.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.0% 10.0% 7.4% 4.2% 8.8% 10.7% 10.7% Logistic: 3.0% 9.4% 6.4% 2.2% 0.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.2% 5.5% 3.2% 1.6% 4.1% 4.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 34 34 39 43 46 49 52 54 56 57 58 59 61 64 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 33 38 42 45 48 51 53 55 56 57 58 60 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 34 38 41 44 47 49 51 52 53 54 56 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 25 29 32 35 38 40 42 43 44 45 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT