* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 71 73 70 66 59 53 48 47 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 71 73 70 66 59 53 48 47 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 71 69 65 59 54 50 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 2 3 7 7 11 13 15 13 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -2 -2 0 0 5 2 5 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 106 121 124 134 191 214 219 242 244 245 234 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.9 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.1 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 132 134 132 124 123 128 133 138 141 143 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 47 43 43 41 40 40 41 43 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 17 16 16 14 11 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 40 38 40 34 -1 10 9 23 34 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 54 64 49 22 18 3 10 3 -9 0 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 0 5 5 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1431 1345 1260 1167 1076 892 691 481 263 67 73 286 455 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.6 18.1 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.3 143.0 143.8 144.6 146.3 148.2 150.2 152.3 154.4 156.4 158.4 160.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 8 7 8 5 0 0 3 11 16 26 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 18. 15. 11. 4. -2. -6. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 141.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.86 12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.39 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 12.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.9% 63.6% 57.5% 51.4% 33.2% 44.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.2% 28.8% 29.9% 25.8% 22.4% 5.5% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.0% 31.0% 29.2% 25.8% 18.5% 16.7% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##