* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 57 62 60 57 53 49 43 40 40 42 45 47 49 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 57 62 60 57 53 49 43 40 40 42 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 50 54 55 54 51 47 43 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 5 6 3 3 4 6 12 13 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -7 -7 -1 1 4 5 3 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 139 116 110 134 130 189 204 207 234 261 268 258 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.6 27.0 26.8 27.1 26.6 25.8 26.2 26.4 27.2 27.5 27.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 139 133 131 134 129 121 125 127 136 139 140 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 56 54 52 48 45 42 41 38 38 39 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 17 19 17 16 15 13 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 17 24 39 38 40 0 11 9 18 23 37 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 50 54 73 51 4 0 -5 6 5 3 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 1 0 2 9 4 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1545 1460 1376 1291 1208 1019 817 607 398 187 44 182 387 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.9 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.3 142.0 142.7 143.4 145.1 147.0 149.0 151.0 153.1 155.3 157.5 159.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 15 8 6 8 2 0 1 4 15 20 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. -2. -5. -5. -3. -0. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 140.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 7.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 44.9% 31.0% 21.5% 14.9% 24.5% 29.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 18.8% 15.5% 12.4% 8.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 21.2% 15.5% 11.3% 7.9% 9.2% 9.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##