* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 75 76 75 76 78 77 77 75 75 74 71 70 69 67 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 75 76 75 76 78 77 77 75 75 74 71 70 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 72 71 72 73 74 76 78 78 78 77 73 68 61 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 3 5 11 11 7 6 6 3 4 6 14 20 26 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 2 4 5 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 204 173 90 63 75 91 69 82 93 129 207 239 239 234 230 218 213 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.7 26.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.4 27.0 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.3 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 135 137 142 129 136 133 133 128 134 123 127 130 128 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 44 41 38 35 37 36 38 41 41 42 40 43 49 50 52 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 22 22 24 25 24 25 24 24 24 21 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 53 53 61 66 60 68 78 69 62 52 49 47 44 34 16 200 MB DIV 0 15 10 0 13 15 11 5 9 6 21 11 14 15 16 16 24 700-850 TADV 7 10 6 -2 -6 0 -2 -1 -1 3 3 7 14 12 22 21 19 LAND (KM) 1342 1444 1536 1634 1738 1951 2175 1934 1682 1428 1164 910 629 380 223 180 234 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.4 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.5 125.8 127.2 128.5 131.2 133.8 136.4 138.8 141.2 143.7 146.1 148.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 13 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 5 9 17 2 8 6 8 2 7 0 3 7 2 30 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.1 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.27 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 737.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.01 -0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 20.4% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.7% 4.0% 1.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.7% 7.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##