* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 93 91 91 88 89 88 88 86 81 77 71 66 60 50 42 V (KT) LAND 90 93 93 91 91 88 89 88 88 86 81 77 71 66 60 50 42 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 93 92 91 90 89 90 88 82 75 68 62 56 50 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 9 11 11 13 17 20 25 17 12 14 12 12 16 25 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 7 3 1 -3 3 0 6 7 8 7 6 2 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 2 337 340 357 341 329 311 299 287 281 260 256 270 268 314 340 332 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.4 27.0 25.1 24.1 22.8 21.1 20.0 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 148 146 147 145 143 130 126 108 100 92 85 82 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 121 120 120 120 122 121 121 111 108 93 87 81 77 74 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.9 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 38 39 42 40 43 42 41 38 42 46 52 52 52 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 23 25 26 29 30 34 34 33 33 31 29 27 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -39 -40 -39 -37 -54 -45 -13 14 2 -8 -27 -47 -60 -107 -47 -4 200 MB DIV -5 7 -6 -14 -8 3 13 34 41 0 11 3 -13 -20 -70 -1 34 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 2 3 11 10 5 11 18 29 22 20 17 28 48 8 LAND (KM) 1738 1719 1685 1666 1644 1606 1585 1526 1437 1364 1344 1389 1491 1626 1788 1479 1101 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.7 32.3 33.0 34.0 35.2 36.5 37.9 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 54.9 55.1 55.1 55.1 54.6 53.4 51.9 49.9 47.4 44.4 41.1 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 11 13 14 15 14 15 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 32 32 31 26 23 16 11 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -35. -40. -44. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 8. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -18. -24. -30. -40. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.3 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 871.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 11.1% 9.5% 7.2% 3.1% 6.2% 3.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 9.5% 7.7% 4.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 6.3% 4.8% 2.9% 1.0% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 14( 24) 12( 33) 11( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 93 91 91 88 89 88 88 86 81 77 71 66 60 50 42 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 87 84 85 84 84 82 77 73 67 62 56 46 38 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 84 81 82 81 81 79 74 70 64 59 53 43 35 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 77 78 77 77 75 70 66 60 55 49 39 31 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 68 69 68 68 66 61 57 51 46 40 30 22 IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 72 73 72 72 70 65 61 55 50 44 34 26 IN 12HR 90 93 93 84 78 74 75 74 74 72 67 63 57 52 46 36 28