* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 63 65 72 78 84 87 92 93 98 94 88 83 77 69 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 63 65 72 78 84 87 92 93 98 94 88 83 77 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 59 63 68 78 85 87 87 89 90 87 81 74 68 61 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 6 6 6 9 8 6 11 19 25 33 35 38 37 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -6 -6 0 2 1 2 -1 -1 -8 -3 -5 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 194 228 268 261 300 19 345 333 306 304 295 283 270 267 261 249 251 SST (C) 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.6 27.8 27.0 24.8 22.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 151 152 151 152 153 150 146 146 149 144 146 135 126 106 92 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 134 131 131 127 123 119 120 124 121 123 114 108 93 82 75 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 48 45 44 39 41 40 46 45 48 44 52 58 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 21 19 22 24 27 27 29 31 36 36 36 39 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -29 -36 -34 -41 -40 -43 -19 -20 4 13 26 -2 -10 -20 -18 -34 200 MB DIV 14 0 7 -7 5 -13 -7 -10 8 30 5 43 31 40 58 40 46 700-850 TADV 8 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 5 4 6 3 20 22 14 29 LAND (KM) 1831 1774 1727 1702 1683 1674 1662 1608 1575 1560 1524 1434 1353 1310 1309 1378 1541 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.1 30.0 30.7 31.2 31.8 32.3 33.0 34.0 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.4 52.5 53.3 54.1 55.3 55.8 55.9 55.3 54.1 52.3 50.1 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 5 3 3 5 7 9 11 12 14 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 25 25 27 27 27 25 24 22 17 13 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 10. 16. 15. 14. 15. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 37. 38. 43. 39. 33. 28. 22. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.6 50.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.4% 11.6% 8.7% 5.6% 10.5% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 28.2% 21.3% 8.9% 4.3% 16.6% 12.0% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 16.1% 11.4% 5.9% 3.3% 9.1% 8.6% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 63 65 72 78 84 87 92 93 98 94 88 83 77 69 18HR AGO 55 54 56 60 62 69 75 81 84 89 90 95 91 85 80 74 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 57 64 70 76 79 84 85 90 86 80 75 69 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 60 66 69 74 75 80 76 70 65 59 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT