* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 73 77 78 77 76 77 76 76 78 78 80 83 83 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 73 77 78 77 76 77 76 76 78 78 80 83 83 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 70 72 75 76 76 78 78 76 76 78 78 80 82 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 9 8 2 2 7 12 9 6 6 5 1 3 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 319 308 283 284 285 192 109 91 80 86 71 68 58 47 346 17 354 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.9 26.3 26.8 27.7 27.1 26.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 145 144 145 141 137 144 127 132 142 136 130 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 51 48 45 43 40 44 50 56 60 62 62 63 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 20 21 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 4 6 11 48 67 60 52 42 30 36 40 44 65 78 78 200 MB DIV 4 4 26 25 12 15 50 14 -2 -26 -1 7 7 28 51 68 19 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 3 6 7 14 3 -2 -1 0 1 -1 1 2 5 7 LAND (KM) 823 871 922 969 1022 1190 1390 1597 1799 2016 2197 1947 1696 1433 1189 967 743 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 116.9 117.8 118.7 121.0 123.5 126.3 128.9 131.5 134.0 136.4 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 10 10 13 8 8 16 0 6 22 9 4 9 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 17. 16. 17. 16. 16. 18. 18. 20. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 37.6% 30.1% 23.5% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 8.6% 7.3% 5.0% 2.9% 9.1% 6.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 16.1% 12.5% 9.5% 6.1% 3.1% 2.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##