* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 62 66 73 80 84 91 97 100 100 95 94 91 83 74 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 62 66 73 80 84 91 97 100 100 95 94 91 83 74 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 62 65 75 84 89 89 92 91 86 83 77 71 63 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 6 6 10 6 8 9 19 23 29 30 27 34 43 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -5 -7 -4 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -4 -3 0 -3 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 197 196 224 253 251 347 26 348 309 311 295 287 269 262 260 272 275 SST (C) 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.0 28.2 28.0 26.6 24.8 23.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 142 151 152 152 154 151 149 144 146 136 140 137 121 106 96 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 129 135 134 132 130 124 121 118 121 114 117 116 104 93 85 80 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 49 49 43 42 40 41 43 50 50 49 52 56 60 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 20 21 24 24 27 30 33 34 34 38 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 -23 -31 -29 -48 -37 -41 -22 -13 10 15 5 -3 -4 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 11 23 7 3 4 -15 -4 -3 11 -5 41 38 54 35 12 18 16 700-850 TADV 17 6 0 1 2 -2 0 0 5 5 8 6 4 11 15 21 12 LAND (KM) 1902 1831 1771 1727 1690 1661 1677 1619 1570 1540 1500 1398 1315 1256 1267 1395 1593 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.6 30.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.2 34.2 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.3 51.5 52.5 53.5 55.0 55.8 56.1 55.7 54.7 53.1 51.2 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 7 4 4 4 7 9 10 11 14 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 26 25 25 27 26 24 22 21 10 12 9 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 14. 17. 20. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 29. 36. 42. 45. 45. 40. 39. 36. 28. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.8 49.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.5% 11.0% 8.2% 5.0% 10.1% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 13.7% 9.2% 3.3% 1.2% 7.9% 7.5% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 10.5% 6.9% 3.8% 2.1% 6.1% 7.0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 62 66 73 80 84 91 97 100 100 95 94 91 83 74 18HR AGO 55 54 56 59 63 70 77 81 88 94 97 97 92 91 88 80 71 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 65 72 76 83 89 92 92 87 86 83 75 66 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 63 67 74 80 83 83 78 77 74 66 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT