* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 55 55 60 66 75 82 87 90 92 93 95 92 92 90 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 55 55 60 66 75 82 87 90 92 93 95 92 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 54 56 63 74 85 92 96 95 92 88 85 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 27 28 20 3 3 7 8 6 12 14 15 17 23 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -7 -3 -3 0 0 1 4 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 248 233 228 228 223 184 28 304 357 10 327 313 298 296 277 255 255 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 130 133 150 152 153 152 150 149 144 142 134 132 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 121 121 124 137 136 134 129 125 122 117 116 111 111 108 106 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -53.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 66 63 55 48 45 47 45 49 47 50 48 53 56 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 32 34 38 40 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 5 -6 -1 4 -9 -7 -3 -10 -20 -23 -6 8 38 94 151 200 MB DIV 92 109 63 17 16 11 15 27 -6 -2 3 9 20 32 64 77 35 700-850 TADV 23 26 35 27 26 -2 -3 -3 -5 0 2 4 6 12 20 5 4 LAND (KM) 1892 1946 2006 1999 1914 1746 1620 1551 1542 1563 1519 1460 1407 1383 1337 1226 1129 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30.3 31.2 31.9 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.3 50.8 53.1 55.1 56.6 57.6 58.0 57.7 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 11 10 7 5 4 4 5 7 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 5 9 22 35 27 27 26 24 21 17 15 11 8 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 6. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 32. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.8 43.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.4% 7.4% 5.6% 2.7% 7.2% 7.3% 9.2% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 2.5% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 2.9% 3.3% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 55 55 60 66 75 82 87 90 92 93 95 92 92 90 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 56 61 67 76 83 88 91 93 94 96 93 93 91 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 60 66 75 82 87 90 92 93 95 92 92 90 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 55 61 70 77 82 85 87 88 90 87 87 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT