* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 54 64 69 76 80 86 90 90 89 86 85 85 87 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 54 64 69 76 80 86 90 90 89 86 85 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 54 61 66 72 79 85 87 85 78 74 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 9 12 11 4 4 4 3 5 9 10 16 14 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 2 2 0 -3 0 0 5 4 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 335 328 317 299 311 300 271 252 171 35 57 41 25 4 360 346 4 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.9 27.9 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 153 150 145 142 143 141 134 144 129 129 133 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 60 56 55 54 50 47 47 49 52 56 61 66 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 16 17 20 21 24 25 27 30 30 31 30 30 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 1 6 10 9 15 23 33 58 53 35 37 26 41 35 47 200 MB DIV 31 42 46 54 59 31 39 48 22 9 -13 3 -3 22 64 57 53 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 4 3 3 4 4 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 755 764 763 770 785 837 932 1013 1159 1349 1522 1705 1886 2064 2183 1975 1780 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.3 115.6 117.1 118.7 120.7 123.1 125.5 128.0 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 19 19 18 15 11 9 14 9 4 17 2 2 9 20 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 25. 24. 20. 18. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 29. 34. 41. 45. 51. 55. 55. 54. 51. 50. 50. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.39 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.7% 21.4% 17.3% 11.7% 18.3% 16.4% 30.6% Logistic: 5.5% 17.8% 11.4% 6.2% 3.5% 8.6% 3.1% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 5.8% 14.9% 11.2% 7.9% 5.1% 9.1% 6.6% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##