* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 62 59 60 63 69 72 75 81 90 92 92 91 94 91 V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 62 59 60 63 69 72 75 81 90 92 92 91 94 91 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 61 60 64 69 77 85 91 96 96 92 89 84 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 30 29 14 7 8 11 6 5 4 12 12 25 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 2 -3 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 4 -2 5 4 SHEAR DIR 257 244 233 231 222 201 112 57 11 51 345 20 306 297 281 267 261 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 128 128 130 140 153 152 153 151 153 154 143 136 133 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 121 121 121 129 137 134 132 128 126 125 117 113 112 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -53.6 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 67 66 58 51 45 43 42 40 40 41 41 41 44 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 19 21 21 23 23 23 25 30 32 33 34 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 14 2 -7 -6 -10 -5 -5 -4 -24 -22 -28 8 36 56 65 200 MB DIV 58 97 99 44 10 14 -4 22 0 0 -24 20 4 49 10 41 32 700-850 TADV 12 19 20 31 24 10 -3 -1 -6 -1 -2 1 4 5 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 1880 1909 1954 2012 1998 1826 1674 1565 1516 1512 1543 1455 1379 1329 1297 1243 1089 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.2 25.1 26.6 27.7 28.8 29.8 30.7 31.4 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.9 45.0 46.1 47.2 49.6 52.1 54.3 56.2 57.7 58.7 59.2 59.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 9 8 5 4 5 7 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 6 5 9 31 34 24 30 26 27 23 14 10 10 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -0. -2. -3. 0. 7. 7. 8. 8. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 27. 27. 26. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 11.9% 8.5% 6.8% 3.6% 6.8% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 4.8% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 3.3% 3.1% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 62 59 60 63 69 72 75 81 90 92 92 91 94 91 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 59 62 68 71 74 80 89 91 91 90 93 90 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 57 60 66 69 72 78 87 89 89 88 91 88 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 53 56 62 65 68 74 83 85 85 84 87 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT