* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 70 75 79 82 81 81 78 81 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 70 75 79 82 81 81 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 51 49 48 51 58 69 79 85 84 82 80 75 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 23 24 29 10 2 6 9 7 15 21 26 28 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 7 4 5 -4 0 -3 -7 -2 -2 0 -6 -2 -4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 295 278 260 248 240 236 211 20 354 329 357 336 323 323 312 291 280 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.6 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 124 126 127 127 133 145 152 152 150 141 135 135 129 126 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 119 121 121 119 123 130 133 129 124 115 110 111 107 105 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 71 69 64 56 51 49 52 53 58 59 59 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 22 21 19 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 46 850 MB ENV VOR 54 37 26 20 11 -11 -5 -6 -10 -26 -18 -31 -40 -7 3 -1 20 200 MB DIV 60 65 72 82 99 28 17 19 16 14 3 -4 40 28 83 80 174 700-850 TADV 4 8 11 18 30 28 10 -7 -2 -5 0 -2 1 0 -5 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1887 1895 1903 1935 1982 2060 1885 1745 1690 1693 1623 1522 1465 1429 1411 1329 1268 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.0 23.3 25.4 27.1 28.7 30.0 31.1 32.0 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.0 42.2 43.3 44.4 46.6 49.1 51.6 53.6 55.0 55.8 56.1 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 8 6 4 4 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 15 12 6 6 30 27 27 28 25 16 12 12 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 9. 13. 14. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -3. 2. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 26. 26. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.8 39.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.9% 8.2% 5.9% 3.0% 6.7% 5.4% 7.7% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 2.5% 2.4% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 70 75 79 82 81 81 78 81 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 70 75 79 82 81 81 78 81 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 46 49 54 61 67 72 76 79 78 78 75 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 44 49 56 62 67 71 74 73 73 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT