* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 67 68 66 65 72 78 85 89 92 90 90 88 90 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 67 68 66 65 72 78 85 89 92 90 90 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 63 66 66 63 61 62 69 81 93 95 93 91 87 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 9 9 10 23 28 20 6 6 9 11 15 22 22 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 5 5 4 -1 -1 -8 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 54 297 298 291 278 258 236 213 189 317 292 326 304 301 300 291 274 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 127 127 127 127 131 140 150 152 149 150 149 148 139 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 126 124 123 122 120 121 127 132 130 124 123 122 122 114 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 67 67 67 67 65 63 60 57 59 56 61 60 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 24 24 24 22 22 25 26 30 32 34 36 39 41 46 850 MB ENV VOR 105 96 85 67 50 24 20 15 25 16 5 7 4 22 19 63 111 200 MB DIV 14 41 70 91 103 86 64 22 29 22 24 27 5 16 29 61 104 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 3 5 24 36 36 -3 -2 1 0 4 13 19 29 20 LAND (KM) 1961 1911 1857 1837 1827 1857 1968 1895 1783 1709 1705 1769 1696 1650 1623 1573 1530 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.6 19.6 21.8 24.1 26.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.9 39.3 40.5 41.8 44.2 46.4 48.5 50.5 52.4 53.6 54.1 54.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 5 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 11 9 15 10 5 23 32 27 25 25 24 20 19 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 15. 16. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 10. 17. 23. 30. 35. 37. 35. 35. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 36.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 22.9% 14.1% 9.3% 6.2% 10.5% 10.5% 9.6% Logistic: 4.3% 13.2% 7.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3.9% 2.7% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 4.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 13.6% 8.1% 4.3% 2.7% 5.1% 4.5% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 65 67 68 66 65 72 78 85 89 92 90 90 88 90 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 63 64 62 61 68 74 81 85 88 86 86 84 86 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 57 55 54 61 67 74 78 81 79 79 77 79 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 46 45 52 58 65 69 72 70 70 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT