* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 31 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 2 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 176 156 44 68 82 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 118 116 113 105 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 43 43 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -24 -33 -44 -56 -78 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -28 -42 -43 -39 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 2 5 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 638 688 731 770 808 897 1003 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.4 119.0 119.8 120.5 122.1 123.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. -23. -20. -19. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##