* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 35 30 25 20 16 17 18 20 22 24 25 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 35 30 25 20 16 17 18 20 22 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 33 30 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 4 3 3 7 7 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -6 -4 4 3 7 7 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 67 184 202 219 242 346 60 37 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.6 23.9 23.3 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 127 123 116 108 100 94 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 48 45 46 42 40 35 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 -3 -12 -12 -14 -48 -68 -74 -83 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 5 -15 -25 -31 -37 -41 -32 -37 -28 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 3 2 5 2 6 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 469 468 476 500 531 615 687 767 873 1003 1128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.8 119.2 120.8 122.3 123.8 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 6.3% 5.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 9.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##