* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 44 41 38 31 26 23 22 24 27 29 31 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 44 41 38 31 26 23 22 24 27 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 41 38 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 1 3 4 4 2 5 9 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 -5 4 4 7 8 13 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 117 32 36 66 129 170 39 63 43 82 42 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.1 24.5 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 134 135 130 123 112 106 102 97 94 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 56 53 50 47 43 41 37 39 36 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 -1 6 -1 -14 -13 -40 -59 -69 -82 -77 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 17 7 11 -13 -34 -32 -31 -18 -39 -16 -12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 2 1 4 2 5 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 424 445 461 459 465 521 601 657 722 816 933 1065 1192 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.6 114.1 114.6 115.1 116.4 117.7 119.0 120.3 121.6 123.0 124.5 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -14. -19. -22. -23. -21. -18. -16. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.4 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 8.3% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##