* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 43 42 40 40 40 43 43 46 47 48 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 43 42 40 40 40 43 43 46 47 48 49 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 44 41 38 37 37 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 30 30 30 29 25 19 20 14 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 6 1 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 277 280 280 285 290 311 356 2 340 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.0 28.7 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 139 138 148 158 155 157 158 156 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 129 127 137 145 139 139 138 134 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 38 40 41 43 51 57 64 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -38 -49 -48 -46 -60 -35 -24 -20 -35 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -20 -25 -28 -36 -15 -16 3 12 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 14 16 14 6 2 1 -1 -1 -8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1701 1599 1485 1381 1285 1116 1018 997 1051 1159 1113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.6 50.9 52.2 53.4 54.7 57.3 59.6 61.6 63.2 64.5 65.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 24 26 25 25 29 51 32 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. -2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.5 49.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 45 43 42 40 40 40 43 43 46 47 48 49 50 52 54 18HR AGO 45 44 43 41 40 38 38 38 41 41 44 45 46 47 48 50 52 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 36 36 36 39 39 42 43 44 45 46 48 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 32 35 35 38 39 40 41 42 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT