* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 45 45 45 45 43 41 37 32 29 31 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 45 45 45 45 43 41 37 32 29 31 35 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 46 44 41 39 35 31 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 5 6 4 4 4 9 4 6 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 0 0 0 -2 1 3 3 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 56 80 92 84 67 136 148 171 64 86 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 133 133 135 130 127 118 111 106 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 59 55 55 50 49 46 45 44 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 12 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 0 0 -3 -5 -15 -24 -39 -59 -68 -82 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 23 38 26 -7 -2 -34 -21 -26 -28 -16 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 0 0 1 1 3 6 4 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 486 492 504 514 504 527 577 651 693 759 824 904 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.2 118.3 119.4 120.6 121.7 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -14. -10. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.30 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.72 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.6% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.5% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##