* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 49 50 51 50 51 48 43 39 37 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 49 50 51 50 51 48 43 39 37 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 45 43 41 39 36 31 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 13 8 7 8 12 11 9 14 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 4 6 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 45 49 54 71 60 61 85 128 93 85 110 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.2 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 141 139 137 134 133 133 129 124 113 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 69 66 61 61 57 58 54 52 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 13 12 12 12 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -12 -7 -7 -6 -6 -17 -26 -47 -61 -70 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 25 35 31 27 -1 -9 -6 -4 -23 -7 -19 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -6 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 503 474 451 432 418 418 434 435 439 475 542 618 675 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.9 112.2 112.5 112.7 113.2 113.8 114.4 115.1 116.0 117.0 118.2 119.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 8. 3. -1. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 21.1% 19.1% 15.1% 10.2% 16.2% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 10.4% 3.8% 1.8% 1.0% 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.6% 7.6% 5.6% 3.7% 6.0% 5.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##