* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 22 21 20 20 21 23 25 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 21 23 22 25 31 25 22 21 23 23 17 17 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 6 4 3 3 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 215 230 239 244 256 278 276 294 307 329 4 5 9 345 311 292 235 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 129 131 132 136 138 144 151 152 153 153 152 151 152 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 121 122 124 127 128 131 135 133 133 131 128 127 124 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 42 39 41 38 43 47 53 57 59 61 63 58 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 15 4 -4 -26 -58 -64 -86 -85 -82 -59 -36 -15 -20 -3 -26 200 MB DIV 16 1 -13 -6 -9 -16 -16 -36 -28 -28 6 -9 41 -5 8 2 -1 700-850 TADV 8 7 7 13 13 20 19 13 16 8 7 10 5 0 1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1724 1709 1702 1704 1707 1618 1433 1266 1175 1142 1155 1195 1268 1366 1450 1419 1358 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.9 45.9 46.9 48.0 50.2 52.6 54.8 56.5 57.8 58.8 59.6 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 10 11 19 24 23 22 23 28 30 25 23 22 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -18. -17. -16. -15. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 43.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.21 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.0% 4.6% 3.6% 0.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 32 31 29 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 25 23 23 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT