* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122016 08/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 39 39 40 41 39 38 39 40 43 47 50 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 39 39 40 41 39 38 39 40 43 47 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 37 35 34 32 31 28 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 14 13 9 7 4 7 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 72 64 60 58 81 90 96 99 91 103 98 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 143 142 141 140 139 134 126 126 124 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 68 68 68 65 65 66 66 61 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -15 -12 -19 -16 -11 -5 1 -8 -19 -40 -48 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 38 25 15 17 14 7 8 10 -3 -5 -7 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -3 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 527 489 454 419 387 331 302 298 314 310 305 341 408 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.0 111.3 111.5 111.7 111.9 112.1 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.1 115.1 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 TWELVE 08/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.12 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.4% 11.7% 8.3% 0.0% 11.6% 11.6% 11.9% Logistic: 0.8% 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.8% 4.3% 2.9% 0.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 TWELVE 08/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##