* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062016 08/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 42 46 49 50 49 50 49 51 53 55 61 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 42 46 49 50 49 50 49 51 53 55 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 42 45 44 42 40 38 37 38 40 43 49 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 5 7 10 12 18 22 23 24 17 16 10 11 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -4 -2 0 -1 1 3 3 2 6 5 1 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 65 129 158 176 215 218 238 245 257 260 263 277 259 244 223 199 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 123 121 119 118 120 123 126 126 128 129 132 136 145 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 119 116 113 110 111 113 116 115 116 115 116 118 125 127 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 58 59 56 50 44 41 40 42 44 51 54 58 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 88 78 58 41 27 27 28 17 11 -6 -27 -50 -43 -49 -58 -61 -67 200 MB DIV 2 4 -3 3 3 19 19 -1 4 14 3 3 10 13 9 28 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 0 1 5 9 10 16 18 15 16 14 11 10 8 LAND (KM) 1851 1902 1961 1961 1950 1958 1952 1940 1953 1996 1966 1834 1737 1671 1625 1579 1549 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.3 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.7 35.6 36.5 37.3 38.1 39.6 41.1 42.6 44.2 45.8 47.5 49.2 50.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 6 4 2 7 8 7 6 11 18 21 17 21 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -14. -13. -15. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 20. 19. 21. 23. 25. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 34.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.2% 10.5% 7.5% 4.1% 8.6% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 24.1% 14.0% 4.6% 2.6% 11.5% 15.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 25.1% 7.7% 0.4% 0.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 21.5% 10.7% 4.2% 2.4% 7.6% 9.4% 1.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 SIX 08/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 38 42 46 49 50 49 50 49 51 53 55 61 65 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 38 42 45 46 45 46 45 47 49 51 57 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 37 40 41 40 41 40 42 44 46 52 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 29 32 33 32 33 32 34 36 38 44 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT