* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 55 60 61 59 54 47 44 37 33 29 27 25 23 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 55 60 61 59 54 47 44 37 33 29 27 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 54 54 52 47 41 36 31 27 24 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 8 4 7 8 15 18 21 21 19 24 27 28 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 0 0 5 4 5 2 0 0 -2 0 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 297 300 298 296 279 240 204 220 213 221 230 254 258 266 254 272 287 SST (C) 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.0 28.1 27.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 155 151 149 144 145 141 130 131 129 129 124 125 130 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 61 61 58 55 57 56 53 46 43 40 38 38 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 19 18 17 16 14 14 11 10 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -16 -6 -5 -7 -9 -7 8 11 23 18 14 5 5 -2 -11 200 MB DIV 4 15 12 21 45 38 22 14 26 2 -9 -15 9 -3 16 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 4 5 4 3 5 2 5 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1981 2053 2128 2195 2264 2227 2045 1875 1696 1518 1346 1186 986 756 507 257 90 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.7 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.2 130.3 131.3 132.3 134.1 135.7 137.2 138.8 140.4 142.0 143.5 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 47 44 38 38 24 21 16 3 4 4 3 0 1 6 13 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -2. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 14. 9. 2. -1. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 128.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.40 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 28.0% 20.9% 20.6% 14.8% 26.8% 28.3% 13.3% Logistic: 4.5% 15.2% 7.2% 4.1% 2.1% 6.0% 5.3% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 6.2% 16.6% 9.6% 8.3% 5.8% 11.1% 11.3% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##