* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 32 31 32 37 39 42 44 49 52 56 58 58 56 55 57 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 15 14 14 16 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 329 332 346 9 17 31 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.6 27.7 28.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 152 144 147 145 132 141 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 159 144 136 139 136 122 129 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 79 80 81 81 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 33 47 56 59 61 72 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 50 49 59 59 47 57 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 -6 -5 -6 -3 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -164 -111 -89 -43 0 -48 -188 -274 -201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.4 96.3 98.1 99.6 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 18 15 14 12 6 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -5. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -8. -3. -1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 16. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 90.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.90 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.79 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.8% 6.5% 4.3% 2.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 5.7% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 32.1% Consensus: 0.7% 4.7% 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 2.8% 1.9% 14.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT