* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 63 70 70 71 69 64 61 59 54 50 43 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 63 70 70 71 69 64 61 59 54 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 53 58 61 64 66 65 58 52 46 41 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 8 7 7 7 2 4 7 6 10 13 18 27 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 1 2 3 4 7 5 5 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 31 15 355 352 334 315 344 73 288 226 270 225 218 230 234 237 240 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 28.2 27.9 27.2 28.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.1 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 148 145 137 147 141 144 147 134 125 127 123 123 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 63 63 63 59 58 54 53 53 52 47 44 43 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 16 17 18 19 21 21 22 22 20 18 18 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -39 -34 -26 -6 -12 -6 -18 -7 -1 7 5 23 17 19 10 200 MB DIV 19 27 30 20 17 31 22 33 24 35 7 9 -4 4 -14 16 -2 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 0 -5 -6 -1 -1 5 5 5 6 4 6 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1456 1546 1645 1748 1854 2027 2196 2214 2002 1811 1634 1460 1257 1026 815 638 454 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.8 124.2 125.6 127.0 129.6 132.0 134.1 136.0 137.7 139.3 140.9 142.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 18 16 7 27 20 20 21 8 1 2 0 0 0 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 3. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 30. 30. 31. 29. 24. 21. 19. 14. 10. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.85 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 25.1% 20.0% 15.4% 12.1% 19.0% 17.7% 28.3% Logistic: 5.6% 18.5% 10.0% 6.4% 7.0% 8.7% 5.9% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 16.2% 10.1% 7.3% 6.5% 9.5% 8.0% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##