* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 78 78 76 75 72 66 64 64 65 68 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 56 36 31 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 72 77 59 37 31 37 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 8 11 13 7 12 10 15 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 348 323 324 349 334 341 10 32 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.8 28.6 29.3 28.0 28.2 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 165 161 166 145 156 136 139 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 153 161 156 159 136 147 126 130 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 10 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 74 74 76 78 80 83 81 82 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 18 15 13 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 59 65 40 25 18 28 46 55 69 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 62 86 83 71 39 46 49 62 68 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -2 0 -1 -3 3 -5 -3 -7 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 78 119 32 -96 -89 -1 15 -94 -259 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.9 89.1 91.3 93.3 95.1 97.0 99.0 101.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 36 33 35 21 7 14 18 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 18. 18. 16. 15. 12. 6. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 84.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.65 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 5.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.50 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 51.0% 38.2% 25.2% 8.1% 27.5% 20.0% 16.6% Logistic: 24.2% 70.5% 53.2% 41.5% 34.8% 54.2% 62.6% 65.3% Bayesian: 18.1% 76.7% 41.7% 13.9% 14.2% 39.8% 25.3% 76.5% Consensus: 21.1% 66.1% 44.4% 26.9% 19.0% 40.5% 36.0% 52.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 59( 59) 0( 59) 0( 59) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 71 75 56 36 31 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 65 69 50 30 25 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 41 21 16 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT