* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 31 29 29 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 31 29 29 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 31 29 27 25 24 24 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 8 11 14 15 23 21 23 25 36 42 46 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 -2 3 3 9 6 2 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 217 234 217 214 251 232 237 237 255 260 268 271 264 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.4 24.1 23.8 24.1 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 25.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 108 105 102 105 115 118 122 124 123 129 126 127 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 48 46 39 33 30 29 30 35 39 36 41 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 12 13 12 10 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -31 -21 -4 -8 -6 -14 -12 -17 -7 -5 7 6 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -27 -26 -20 -21 13 0 2 -12 -15 -2 -6 -7 -10 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 1 -3 -6 2 -1 1 0 -6 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1918 2016 2064 1967 1824 1543 1256 986 737 526 335 194 125 77 191 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.9 133.3 134.6 136.0 137.4 140.2 143.1 145.9 148.6 151.1 153.6 156.1 158.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 5 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -28. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -15. -17. -21. -27. -33. -38. -43. -47. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.1 131.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##