* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 70 75 76 77 77 72 62 58 58 60 62 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 70 75 44 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 71 76 45 33 33 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 7 9 12 10 12 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -4 -1 -4 -6 -2 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 316 353 316 330 2 330 16 22 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.0 28.7 28.8 27.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 156 157 164 168 152 146 148 132 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 152 154 160 163 144 137 138 122 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 72 75 74 77 80 83 83 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 22 24 20 18 16 12 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 46 55 58 40 25 10 45 51 62 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 50 55 84 85 77 39 24 47 70 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 101 43 61 103 34 -162 -67 8 -32 -169 -252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.9 90.2 92.3 94.1 95.9 97.7 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 35 34 33 34 6 23 14 13 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. -0. -3. -6. -13. -21. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 20. 21. 22. 22. 17. 7. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 83.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.69 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 49.0% 35.9% 24.0% 7.8% 30.2% 24.7% 17.7% Logistic: 19.4% 70.2% 51.7% 42.0% 36.9% 56.2% 67.2% 68.7% Bayesian: 11.5% 73.6% 35.0% 10.0% 7.7% 34.4% 32.9% 84.0% Consensus: 16.1% 64.3% 40.9% 25.3% 17.5% 40.3% 41.6% 56.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 70( 70) 0( 70) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 64 70 75 44 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 58 64 69 38 27 27 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 31 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT