* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 49 48 44 42 38 37 34 33 31 25 24 24 23 21 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 49 48 44 42 38 37 34 33 31 25 24 24 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 48 44 41 38 37 37 36 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 12 11 5 12 13 17 19 20 23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -6 -2 -3 -5 2 -2 4 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 219 172 189 216 217 218 235 229 237 237 274 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.4 23.6 24.7 24.8 25.2 25.0 25.8 25.8 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 118 116 108 100 111 112 116 114 122 122 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 54 52 48 44 36 34 30 29 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 14 13 13 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -1 -3 -10 -8 -4 -8 -5 -12 -13 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 26 37 3 -12 -12 3 3 -5 8 -4 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 2 1 -3 2 -5 -5 0 1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1707 1779 1860 1951 2022 1916 1634 1347 1077 829 604 404 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.7 131.0 132.4 133.7 136.5 139.3 142.2 145.0 147.7 150.3 153.0 155.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -13. -16. -17. -19. -25. -25. -26. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.5 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##