* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 47 47 45 44 42 38 38 36 35 33 33 32 31 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 47 47 45 44 42 38 38 36 35 33 33 32 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 36 35 35 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 9 8 8 4 9 13 17 17 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -3 0 -5 1 0 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 260 231 221 197 226 233 235 248 243 240 248 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.0 25.4 25.1 25.1 24.2 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.1 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 119 116 116 106 100 107 112 118 115 119 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 56 52 47 42 37 34 32 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 12 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -14 -8 -1 -6 -5 -7 -11 -12 -18 -21 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 30 35 25 31 -12 -1 0 1 -16 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 3 5 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1601 1645 1701 1775 1857 2018 1897 1616 1341 1090 838 619 412 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 127.1 128.4 129.8 131.1 133.9 136.7 139.5 142.3 144.9 147.6 150.2 152.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 125.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##