* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 28 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 16 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 124 132 138 137 151 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 97 94 93 92 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 40 38 38 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -33 -25 -17 -19 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -5 -6 -20 -2 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 965 1003 1044 1083 1122 1193 1265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.3 123.9 124.5 125.0 125.5 126.3 127.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -19. -26. -33. -40. -47. -53. -58. -62. -65. -68. -69. -72. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 123.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##